NBA OFF-SEASON
MON · JUL 27
The 2025-26 NBA season is settled. Every signal graded, nothing removed. The model is in the lab until opening night.
SPORTS MARKET INTELLIGENCE
One pick beats five.
Market intelligence across NBA, MLB, and WNBA. A four-model ensemble scans every game, detects pricing inefficiencies, and surfaces signals only when real edge appears. Most days, the answer is pass. That's the product.
$99/yr founding rate, locked while active · 36 of 50 remaining · $149/yr after
UPDATED DAILY
Today at the desk.
The model publishes its work every day, signal or no signal. Market reports, edge rankings, and the games it passed on. Free to read, permanently on record.
469
Games Analyzed
202
Signals Generated
267
Games Passed
If it's not sharp, it's not sent.
Inside the App
Every signal shows its work.
No black boxes. Each qualified signal surfaces the edge percentage, cover probability, implied probability gap, and the specific quantitative reasoning behind the pick.
Full signal card: market vs model line, tier, size, edge bar, value range, flat and Kelly sizing, and a one-tap tracking button. Every detail of the thesis, visible.
MEI score, regime classification, top edge, signal density bar, line movement tracking, and a market signal narrative before tip-off.
Every game analyzed with edge sorting. Filter by upcoming, final, or passed. Spread, total, moneyline, and quant analysis on each matchup.
Your tracked bets at actual stakes. Total P/L, equity curve, ROI, record, units, plus discipline score with selectivity rate vs industry average.
Signal intelligence notes, market analysis, and discipline essays. Content like "The Model Doesn't Watch the Game" designed to make you a sharper bettor.
WHAT SETS US APART
Six layers of intelligence.
Not a picks service. An intelligence platform.
Daily market brief before you bet
MEI score, regime classification, top edge, signal density, and a market narrative. Line movement tracking shows which lines are moving toward or away from the model.
Every game analyzed, signals and passes
The full market board with edge sorting. See which games qualified, which were passed, spread vs model line, moneyline, and the quant analysis behind each. Filter by upcoming, final, or passed.
Track your bets. See your whole portfolio.
Log wagers at actual stakes, track results, and see your total P/L with an equity curve over time. ROI, record, units, all calculated from your real bets.
The bets you don't take are tracked too
Selectivity rate, picks followed vs passed, and a discipline grade. The only platform that measures restraint and compares you to the industry average.
Sharp Journal: market notes and philosophy
Signal intelligence notes, market analysis, and discipline essays. Content like "The Model Doesn't Watch the Game" designed to make you a sharper bettor by understanding when not to bet.
Live tracking and a permanent public record
Watch your picks play out in real time. Every result graded against the closing line, published publicly, and permanently on record. Zero picks deleted.
HOW SHARPPICKS WORKS
From market scan to signal.
Three steps. One decision. Or none at all.
1
Market Intelligence
SharpPicks scans every game across multiple sportsbooks to detect pricing discrepancies and measure market efficiency in real time.
2
Quantitative Analysis
Each game is evaluated using four ML models, probability gaps, and market signals. 56 features per game, no narratives.
3
Discipline Filter
Only positions with 3.5%+ edge survive. Most games are passed. No edge, no pick.
THE MODEL SHOWS ITS WORK
Full transparency on every signal.
56 features. Four models. Full reasoning.
Minnesota Timberwolves +10.0
SIGNAL
+8.0%
COVER PROB
61.6%
PROJ MARGIN
+7.1
Playable down to +8. Edge invalidates beyond.
- MIN 118.7 PPG vs BOS DEF 107.1 allowed
- Rest advantage: MIN 2 days vs BOS back-to-back
- Spread-adjusted scoring margin: +3.6
- Model consensus: 4/4 models agree (GBM, RF, XGB, ADA)
LIVE TRACKING + PUBLIC RECORD
Verified. Public. No exceptions.
Watch picks play out live. Every result graded against the closing line.
58.3%
CLV Beat Rate
Vs closing moneyline
202
Signals Tracked
All time
56.9%
Pass Rate
Passes over games analyzed
0
Picks Removed
Full transparency
61-49 · +18.71u · WNBA results included while its model is in calibration
Graded on the closing line, not the scoreboard. Results follow process or they do not; both are published.
SHARP JOURNAL
Model thinking. Market discipline.
Signal intelligence notes, process philosophy, and market analysis. Free to read, written to make you sharper whether or not you ever subscribe.
PHILOSOPHY
Why We Pass More Than We Play
The betting industry runs on volume. SharpPicks publishes a signal on roughly 30% of available slates. The other 70%, the system is silent. That silence is the product. The math behind selectivity, and what it costs to act on every slate.
PHILOSOPHYThe Cost of a Bad Bet You Didn't Need to Make
Every unnecessary bet has a cost beyond the dollars lost. It erodes discipline and distorts your record.
HOW IT WORKSWhat Happens Between the Lines and Your Phone
A technical walkthrough of the four-model ensemble pipeline, 56 features, and the edge threshold.
HOW IT WORKSWhat CLV Actually Tells You
The strongest predictor of long-term profitability, and the scoreboard SharpPicks grades itself against.
PHILOSOPHYThe Model Doesn't Watch the Game
SharpPicks doesn't know about momentum or vibes. It knows 56 features and a discipline filter with no feelings about your favorite team.
FREE TOOLS
Grade your own bets.
The same math the model is held to, open to anyone.
CLV Calculator
Compare your bet line to the closing line and see whether you beat the market. Consistently positive CLV is the strongest predictor of long-term profitability.
Edge Calculator
Turn a model probability and a market price into an edge percentage. The same qualification math behind every SharpPicks signal.
PRICING
Simple, transparent plans.
The free tier is the trial. Paid plans bill on day one and cancel anytime.
Free
$0
Forever
- Daily market reports, edge rankings, and passes. Free forever.
- See if a pick exists today
- Public record access
- Market overview
Monthly
$19.99 / month
Cancel anytime
- Daily market brief with MEI score
- Full pick details, edge %, side, line
- Full market board: signals + passes
- Bet tracking and portfolio P/L
- Discipline score and behavioral insights
- Sharp Journal: market notes and philosophy
- Live tracking and real-time alerts
Annual Founding Rate
$99 / year
$99/yr rate locked in · $149/yr once spots are claimed
- Everything in Monthly
- Founding member badge with your spot number
- Locked-in rate for duration of subscription
- Priority support
- Bills today. Seven-day money-back, no questions asked.
36 of 50 founding spots remaining
All paid plans bill on day one. Cancel anytime to stop renewal. The free tier is permanent and requires no card. If SharpPicks is not for you, write support within seven days of your first charge for a full refund. Founding member rate locks in for the duration of an active, uninterrupted subscription.
Start scanning the market.
Create a free account and see the model at work. Upgrade anytime.
Beat the market, not the scoreboard.
One pick beats five.
No edge, no pick.
One pick beats five.
No edge, no pick.