Edge Calculator
A betting edge is the difference between your estimated true probability and the implied probability from market odds. A positive edge means you have expected profit on the bet over time.
How Edge Works
Edge = Your Probability - Implied Probability. At -110 odds, the implied probability is about 52.4%. If you estimate the true probability at 57%, your edge is roughly 4.6%.
SharpPicks requires a minimum model edge before publishing a signal: 3.5% in basketball, 4.5% in baseball, where outcome variance runs higher. The threshold filters out noise and ensures only meaningful mispricing is acted on.
Common Questions
What is a betting edge?
A betting edge is the difference between your estimated true probability and the implied probability from market odds. A positive edge means you have an expected profit.
What is the qualification threshold?
SharpPicks requires a minimum model edge before publishing a signal: 3.5% in basketball and 4.5% in baseball, where outcome variance runs higher. The threshold filters out noise and ensures only meaningful mispricing is acted on.
How do I estimate true probability?
True probability is estimated using statistical models that account for team strength, matchup factors, injuries, and other variables. SharpPicks uses an ensemble of four models.
SharpPicks is built for selectivity, not volume.
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