Games the Model Passed On | April 7, 2026
Most of the slate stayed inside efficient pricing ranges. As a result, 8 games were logged as passes rather than forced into action.
Analyzed
10
Passed
8
80%
Edge band
2 to 3.4%
of passed games
Passed Games
OKC @ LAL · 17.0
Near threshold but not qualified. Spread exceeds model comfort range. Player availability uncertainty.
Edge band: 2 to 3.4% · Pass
MIA @ TOR · 1.5
No measurable edge. Player availability uncertainty.
Edge band: Below 2% · Pass
CHI @ WAS · -6.0
Below internal threshold. Player availability uncertainty.
Edge band: Below 2% · Pass
UTA @ NOP · 10.5
Below internal threshold. Edge insufficient for this spread size. Player availability uncertainty.
Edge band: Below 2% · Pass
MIL @ BKN · -2.0
Near threshold but not qualified. Player availability uncertainty.
Edge band: 2 to 3.4% · Pass
SAC @ GSW · 14.5
Near threshold but not qualified. Spread exceeds model comfort range. Player availability uncertainty.
Edge band: 2 to 3.4% · Pass
DAL @ LAC · 11.5
Near threshold but not qualified. Spread exceeds model comfort range. Player availability uncertainty.
Edge band: 2 to 3.4% · Pass
MIN @ IND · -12.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks. Spread exceeds model comfort range. Player availability uncertainty.
Edge band: 3.5 to 4.4% · Filtered
Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.
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