Market Reports / April 7, 2026

NBA Market Report | April 7, 2026

10 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 54

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On April 7, 2026, that process resulted in 2 published signals and 8 passes.

MEI
54
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
HOU @ PHX
Density
20.0%
2 of 10
Passed
8
of 10
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Signal
Signal Published
Houston Rockets +1.0
HOU @ PHX
Market
1.0
Model
-1.9
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
HOU @ PHX 1.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHA @ BOS -4.5 3.5 to 4.4% SIGNAL
OKC @ LAL 17.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
MIA @ TOR 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CHI @ WAS -6.0 Below 2% PASS
UTA @ NOP 10.5 Below 2% PASS
MIL @ BKN -2.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
SAC @ GSW 14.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
DAL @ LAC 11.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
MIN @ IND -12.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
Line Movement
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Indiana Pacers +7.0 pts toward model
Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets -5.0 pts away
Charlotte Hornets @ Boston Celtics +5.0 pts toward model
Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans -11.0 pts away
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors No movement
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers -3.5 pts away
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
3-4
CLV beat
0 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes8 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameHOU @ PHX› GameCHA @ BOS› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play›

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