Market Reports / April 9, 2026

NBA Market Report | April 9, 2026

6 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 43

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 43, signaling a normal environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
43
NORMAL
Top Edge
4.5%+
MIA @ TOR
Density
17.0%
1 of 6
Passed
5
of 6
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Signal
Signal Published
Toronto Raptors -3.5
MIA @ TOR
Market
-3.5
Model
-5.7
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

SharpPicks treats discipline as part of the edge. When projected value stays below the qualification line, the game is logged as a pass rather than forced into action.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
MIA @ TOR -3.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BOS @ NYK -5.5 Below 2% PASS
PHI @ HOU -5.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
IND @ BKN 3.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
LAL @ GSW 4.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
CHI @ WAS -6.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards +10.0 pts toward model
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors +12.0 pts toward model
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks +1.0 pts toward model
Philadelphia 76ers @ Houston Rockets +4.0 pts toward model
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors +11.0 pts toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
3-4
CLV beat
0 of 7

Most bettors would have played 3 to 5 games on this slate. SharpPicks found 1. The gap between those two numbers is where edge lives.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes5 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameMIA @ TOR› GameCHI @ WAS› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: NBA evening edition›

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