Games the Model Passed On | April 9, 2026
Most of the slate stayed inside efficient pricing ranges. As a result, 4 games were logged as passes rather than forced into action.
Analyzed
6
Passed
4
67%
Edge band
Below 2%
of passed games
Passed Games
CIN @ MIA · -1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks. Line moved significantly since model ran.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
DET @ MIN · -1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
CHW @ KC · 1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
ARI @ NYM · 1.5
No measurable edge.
Edge band: Below 2% · Pass
Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.
Early-season MLB pass rates tend to run higher (85-90%) because the model requires stable pitching, bullpen, and lineup data before generating high-confidence edges.
Related
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