Games the Model Passed On | April 11, 2026
Most of the slate stayed inside efficient pricing ranges. As a result, 13 games were logged as passes rather than forced into action.
Analyzed
15
Passed
13
87%
Edge band
Below 2%
of passed games
Passed Games
MIN @ TOR · -1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
CLE @ ATL · -1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
SF @ BAL · -1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
BOS @ STL · -1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
CHW @ KC · 1.5
No measurable edge.
Edge band: Below 2% · Pass
OAK @ NYM · 1.5
No measurable edge.
Edge band: Below 2% · Pass
HOU @ SEA · 1.5
No measurable edge.
Edge band: Below 2% · Pass
COL @ SD · 1.5
Below internal threshold.
Edge band: Below 2% · Pass
NYY @ TB · -1.5
Below internal threshold.
Edge band: Below 2% · Pass
PIT @ CHC · 1.5
Near threshold but not qualified.
Edge band: 2 to 3.4% · Pass
MIA @ DET · 1.5
Near threshold but not qualified.
Edge band: 2 to 3.4% · Pass
ARI @ PHI · 1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 3.5 to 4.4% · Filtered
LAA @ CIN · 1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.
Early-season MLB pass rates tend to run higher (85-90%) because the model requires stable pitching, bullpen, and lineup data before generating high-confidence edges.
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Most games never qualify.
Get notified when one actually does. Selectivity is the system.
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