Market Reports / April 11, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 11, 2026

15 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 63

The model reviewed 15 MLB games on April 11, 2026 and found 7 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 2 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
63
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
LAA @ CIN
Density
13.0%
2 of 15
Passed
13
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Washington Nationals +1.5
WAS @ MIL
Market
1.5
Model
-0.5
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
MIN @ TOR -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
WAS @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CLE @ ATL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ BAL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BOS @ STL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TEX @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHW @ KC 1.5 Below 2% PASS
OAK @ NYM 1.5 Below 2% PASS
HOU @ SEA 1.5 Below 2% PASS
COL @ SD 1.5 Below 2% PASS
NYY @ TB -1.5 Below 2% PASS
PIT @ CHC 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
MIA @ DET 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
ARI @ PHI 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
LAA @ CIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Athletics @ New York Mets +14.9 pp toward model
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals -15.3 pp away
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers -1.6 pp away
Cleveland Guardians @ Atlanta Braves -0.9 pp away
San Francisco Giants @ Baltimore Orioles +1.0 pp toward model
Boston Red Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals +0.2 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
2 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 13 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes13 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameLAA @ CIN› GameMIN @ TOR› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBetween the Lines: Betting from Your Phone›

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