Market Reports / April 12, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 12, 2026

15 games analyzed 4 signals MEI: 66

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 66, signaling a active environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
66
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
TEX @ LAD
Density
27.0%
4 of 15
Passed
11
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
San Francisco Giants +1.5
SF @ BAL
Market
1.5
Model
0.5
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
SF @ BAL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAA @ CIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
WAS @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BOS @ STL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
COL @ SD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CLE @ ATL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYY @ TB -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
OAK @ NYM 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
MIA @ DET 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CHW @ KC 1.5 Below 2% PASS
HOU @ SEA 1.5 Below 2% PASS
ARI @ PHI 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIN @ TOR 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
PIT @ CHC 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
TEX @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies +14.5 pp toward model
Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays +18.6 pp toward model
Athletics @ New York Mets -0.1 pp away
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers -9.0 pp away
Boston Red Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals -1.0 pp away
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs -0.8 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
2 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes11 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameTEX @ LAD› GameSF @ BAL› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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