Underdogs carrying the value. 8 of 11 edges on dogs.
April 12, 2026 · Updated 2026-04-12T15:01:53.756998Z
Observation
Most slates look efficient on the surface. On April 12, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 15 MLB games and found only 4 signals worth sending, with 11 games falling short of the threshold.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
13 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
13 of 15
2 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
San Francisco Giants +1.5
4.5%+
San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles · SF 2, BAL 6
Model: 0.5
·
Close: -1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
SF @ BAL
-6.0%
-1.0u
LAA @ CIN
-6.0%
Final LAA 9-6 CIN
WAS @ MIL
-6.0%
Final WAS 8-6 MIL
BOS @ STL
-6.0%
Final BOS 9-3 STL
COL @ SD
-6.0%
Final COL 2-7 SD
CLE @ ATL
-6.0%
Final CLE 1-13 ATL
NYY @ TB
-6.0%
Final NYY 4-5 TB
OAK @ NYM
-4.2%
Final OAK 1-0 NYM
MIA @ DET
-1.4%
Final MIA 2-8 DET
CHW @ KC
-0.3%
Final CHW 6-5 KC
HOU @ SEA
-0.1%
Final HOU 1-6 SEA
ARI @ PHI
-1.9%
Final ARI 4-3 PHI
MIN @ TOR
-3.2%
Final MIN 8-2 TOR
PIT @ CHC
-3.7%
Final PIT 6-7 CHC
TEX @ LAD
-6.6%
Final TEX 5-2 LAD
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 2 of 15 settled games.
ARI @ PHI
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +1.5
BOS @ STL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
CHW @ KC
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CLE @ ATL
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
COL @ SD
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
HOU @ SEA
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Dodgers
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
Signal missed. Tracked, not removed.
Sharp Principle
The math does not celebrate.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›