Market Reports / April 6, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 6, 2026

13 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 63

The model reviewed 13 MLB games on April 6, 2026 and found 10 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 2 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
63
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
LAD @ TOR
Density
15.0%
2 of 13
Passed
11
of 13
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Cincinnati Reds +1.5
CIN @ MIA
Market
1.5
Model
0.2
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
KC @ CLE -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ MIA 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ BOS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
STL @ WAS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
DET @ MIN 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SEA @ TEX -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHC @ TB -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
HOU @ COL 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
ATL @ LAA -1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
BAL @ CHW 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
SD @ PIT 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAD @ TOR 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians -0.4 pp away
Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins -1.8 pp away
San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates -3.1 pp away
Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox +2.9 pp toward model
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals +1.4 pp toward model
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays -1.3 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
1 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 11 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes11 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameLAD @ TOR› GameKC @ CLE› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet›

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