Market Reports / April 5, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 5, 2026

15 games analyzed 5 signals MEI: 65

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On April 5, 2026, that process resulted in 5 published signals and 10 passes.

MEI
65
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
MIA @ NYY
Density
33.0%
5 of 15
Passed
10
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
Miami Marlins +1.5
MIA @ NYY
Market
1.5
Model
-0.6
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
MIA @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ KC 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TB @ MIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ TEX 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
HOU @ OAK -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYM @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ ARI -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHC @ CLE -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PHI @ COL -1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
LAD @ WAS 1.5 Below 2% PASS
SEA @ LAA 1.5 Below 2% PASS
SD @ BOS 1.5 Below 2% PASS
TOR @ CHW 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
STL @ DET 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
BAL @ PIT 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox -6.5 pp away
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals +17.7 pp toward model
Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees -1.7 pp away
Houston Astros @ Athletics -3.0 pp away
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants +13.2 pp toward model
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels -7.4 pp away
Recent performance ยท MLB

Recent sample below reporting threshold. Figures publish once 7 signals are graded.

This slate had 15 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 5. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes10 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameMIA @ NYY› GameMIL @ KC› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBeginner's Guide to Sports Betting› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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