Market Reports / April 3, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 3, 2026

15 games analyzed 6 signals MEI: 68

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 13 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
68
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
STL @ DET
Density
40.0%
6 of 15
Passed
9
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
STL @ DET
Market
1.5
Model
-0.7
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
STL @ DET 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIA @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SD @ BOS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ TEX 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PHI @ COL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TB @ MIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BAL @ PIT -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ KC -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
HOU @ OAK -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ ARI -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYM @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAD @ WAS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHC @ CLE -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TOR @ CHW 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
SEA @ LAA 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
Line Movement
St. Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers +0.1 pp toward model
Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees No movement
San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox No movement
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox -0.9 pp away
Cincinnati Reds @ Texas Rangers -2.7 pp away
Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies +1.2 pp toward model
Recent performance ยท MLB

Recent sample below reporting threshold. Figures publish once 7 signals are graded.

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes9 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameSTL @ DET› GameMIA @ NYY› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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