Market Reports / March 30, 2026

MLB Market Report | March 30, 2026

15 games analyzed 7 signals MEI: 89

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 11 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
89
RARE INEFFICIENCY
Top Edge
4.5%+
TEX @ BAL
Density
47.0%
7 of 15
Passed
8
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
Texas Rangers +1.5
TEX @ BAL
Market
1.5
Model
0.2
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
TEX @ BAL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
COL @ TOR 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAA @ CHC 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CLE @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
WAS @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYY @ SEA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIN @ KC 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TB @ MIL 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% SIGNAL
CHW @ MIA 1.5 Below 2% PASS
PIT @ CIN 1.5 Below 2% PASS
OAK @ ATL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
NYM @ STL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BOS @ HOU 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
DET @ ARI 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ SD 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals -1.0 pp away
Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles +0.2 pp toward model
Chicago White Sox @ Miami Marlins -1.5 pp away
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds -0.4 pp away
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies +0.9 pp toward model
Colorado Rockies @ Toronto Blue Jays No movement
Recent performance ยท MLB

Recent sample below reporting threshold. Figures publish once 7 signals are graded.

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 8 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes8 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameTEX @ BAL› GameCOL @ TOR› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBetween the Lines: Betting from Your Phone› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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