Market Reports / March 31, 2026

MLB Market Report | March 31, 2026

14 games analyzed 8 signals MEI: 90

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 10 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
90
RARE INEFFICIENCY
Top Edge
4.5%+
COL @ TOR
Density
57.0%
8 of 14
Passed
6
of 14
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Signal
Signal Published
Colorado Rockies +1.5
COL @ TOR
Market
1.5
Model
-1.4
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
COL @ TOR 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYY @ SEA -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
WAS @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CLE @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
DET @ ARI -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PIT @ CIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TEX @ BAL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ SD -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BOS @ HOU 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
OAK @ ATL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAA @ CHC 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% SIGNAL
CHW @ MIA 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
TB @ MIL 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
NYM @ STL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Chicago White Sox @ Miami Marlins -1.3 pp away
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds +1.2 pp toward model
New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals -1.1 pp away
Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles -0.4 pp away
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies No movement
Athletics @ Atlanta Braves -1.3 pp away
Recent performance ยท MLB

Recent sample below reporting threshold. Figures publish once 7 signals are graded.

This slate had 14 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 8. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes6 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameCOL @ TOR› GameNYY @ SEA› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBetween the Lines: Betting from Your Phone› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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