Market Reports / April 4, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 4, 2026

15 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 63

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On April 4, 2026, that process resulted in 1 published signal and 14 passes.

MEI
63
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
CHC @ CLE
Density
7.0%
1 of 15
Passed
14
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
Miami Marlins +1.5
MIA @ NYY
Market
1.5
Model
-0.7
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
HOU @ OAK -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BAL @ PIT -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAD @ WAS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIA @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TB @ MIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ ARI -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ COL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYM @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIL @ KC -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
STL @ DET 1.5 Below 2% PASS
SEA @ LAA 1.5 Below 2% PASS
TOR @ CHW 1.5 Below 2% PASS
SD @ BOS 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
CIN @ TEX 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
CHC @ CLE 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Baltimore Orioles @ Pittsburgh Pirates -2.3 pp away
San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox -1.0 pp away
Cincinnati Reds @ Texas Rangers No movement
Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees -0.9 pp away
Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins +0.5 pp toward model
Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians +0.4 pp toward model
Recent performance ยท MLB

Recent sample below reporting threshold. Figures publish once 7 signals are graded.

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes14 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameCHC @ CLE› GameHOU @ OAK› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator›

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