Market Reports / March 29, 2026

MLB Market Report | March 29, 2026

12 games analyzed 7 signals MEI: 92

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 8 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
92
RARE INEFFICIENCY
Top Edge
4.5%+
COL @ MIA
Density
58.0%
7 of 12
Passed
5
of 12
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Signal
Signal Published
Colorado Rockies +1.5
COL @ MIA
Market
1.5
Model
-1.7
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
COL @ MIA 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PIT @ NYM 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHW @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
WAS @ CHC 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAA @ HOU 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TB @ STL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TEX @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
KC @ ATL 1.5 2 to 3.4% SIGNAL
CLE @ SEA 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
OAK @ TOR 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIN @ BAL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
BOS @ CIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Kansas City Royals @ Atlanta Braves -1.3 pp away
Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles -1.0 pp away
Texas Rangers @ Philadelphia Phillies -3.6 pp away
Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 pp toward model
Boston Red Sox @ Cincinnati Reds +0.4 pp toward model
Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins -1.5 pp away
Recent performance ยท MLB

Recent sample below reporting threshold. Figures publish once 7 signals are graded.

Most bettors would have played 3 to 5 games on this slate. SharpPicks found 7. The gap between those two numbers is where edge lives.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes5 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameCOL @ MIA› GamePIT @ NYM› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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