Market Reports / March 28, 2026

MLB Market Report | March 28, 2026

14 games analyzed 8 signals MEI: 91

The model reviewed 14 MLB games on March 28, 2026 and found 11 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 8 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
91
RARE INEFFICIENCY
Top Edge
4.5%+
WAS @ CHC
Density
57.0%
8 of 14
Passed
6
of 14
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Signal
Signal Published
Washington Nationals +1.5
WAS @ CHC
Market
1.5
Model
-1.1
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
WAS @ CHC 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
OAK @ TOR 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PIT @ NYM 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
COL @ MIA 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHW @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
ARI @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CLE @ SEA 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
DET @ SD -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYY @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIN @ BAL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TEX @ PHI 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
LAA @ HOU 1.5 Below 2% PASS
KC @ ATL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
BOS @ CIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Tampa Bay Rays @ St. Louis Cardinals No movement
Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs -0.9 pp away
Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles +1.9 pp toward model
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets -1.1 pp away
Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers -0.9 pp away
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros +2.2 pp toward model
Recent performance ยท MLB

Recent sample below reporting threshold. Figures publish once 7 signals are graded.

Most bettors would have played 3 to 5 games on this slate. SharpPicks found 8. The gap between those two numbers is where edge lives.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes6 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameWAS @ CHC› GameOAK @ TOR› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBetween the Lines: Betting from Your Phone› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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