Slate Recap · Sharp Journal · Evening Edition · 2 min read

More than half the edges cleared the filter.

Observation

Most slates look efficient on the surface. On March 28, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 14 MLB games and found only 8 signals worth sending, with 6 games falling short of the threshold.

Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
10 / 1
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient Model edge
10 of 1 -9 of 1
Top Edge · Settled
Washington Nationals +1.5 4.5%+
Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs · WAS 2, CHC 10
Model: -1.1 · Close: -1.5 · CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
WAS @ CHC -15.0%
-1.0u
OAK @ TOR -15.0%
Pending
PIT @ NYM -15.0%
Pending
COL @ MIA -15.0%
Pending
CHW @ MIL -15.0%
Pending
ARI @ LAD -15.0%
Pending
CLE @ SEA -15.0%
Pending
DET @ SD -13.7%
Pending
NYY @ SF -7.1%
Pending
MIN @ BAL -5.4%
Pending
TEX @ PHI -2.8%
Pending
LAA @ HOU -0.5%
Pending
KC @ ATL -0.5%
Pending
BOS @ CIN +6.2%
Pending
Closing Line Audit

Market closed within model fair value on -9 of 1 settled games.

CHW @ MIL
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Model edge
CLE @ SEA
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Model edge
PIT @ NYM
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Model edge
ARI @ LAD
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Tied
BOS @ CIN
Open: +1.5 · Close: -1.5
Market efficient
COL @ MIA
Open: -1.5 · Close: +1.5
Market efficient
Near Misses
Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
A miss on both axes. The ledger takes it as it is.
Sharp Principle

A loss that beat the close was a good trade.

How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›
Recent performance ยท MLB

Recent sample below reporting threshold. Figures publish once 7 signals are graded.

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 6 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is CLV?
Closing Line Value measures whether the price you got on a bet was better than the closing line. Positive CLV correlates with long-term profitability. The evening edition reports CLV against the closing line and against model fair value separately.
Why no red L badges on losses?
Outcomes are reported without color-coded punishment. A loss is a data point, not a failure. The framework holds when every signal is verified and every pass is documented, regardless of how any single result fell.
What is a pass day?
A pass day is a slate where the model issued zero signals. Pass days are not missed opportunities. They are the system refusing to manufacture signals where the data does not support them.
This Week's Reports
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Related
Passes6 games the model passed on EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings GameWAS @ CHC GameOAK @ TOR WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary LearnBeginner's Guide to Sports Betting MorningHow the morning called it: MLB market report

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