More than half the edges cleared the filter.
March 28, 2026 · Updated 2026-03-28T18:17:37.604319Z
Observation
Most slates look efficient on the surface. On March 28, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 14 MLB games and found only 8 signals worth sending, with 6 games falling short of the threshold.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
10 / 1
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
10 of 1
-9 of 1
Top Edge · Settled
Washington Nationals +1.5
4.5%+
Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs · WAS 2, CHC 10
Model: -1.1
·
Close: -1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
WAS @ CHC
-15.0%
-1.0u
OAK @ TOR
-15.0%
Pending
PIT @ NYM
-15.0%
Pending
COL @ MIA
-15.0%
Pending
CHW @ MIL
-15.0%
Pending
ARI @ LAD
-15.0%
Pending
CLE @ SEA
-15.0%
Pending
DET @ SD
-13.7%
Pending
NYY @ SF
-7.1%
Pending
MIN @ BAL
-5.4%
Pending
TEX @ PHI
-2.8%
Pending
LAA @ HOU
-0.5%
Pending
KC @ ATL
-0.5%
Pending
BOS @ CIN
+6.2%
Pending
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on -9 of 1 settled games.
CHW @ MIL
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CLE @ SEA
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
PIT @ NYM
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
ARI @ LAD
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
BOS @ CIN
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
COL @ MIA
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +1.5
Near Misses
Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
A miss on both axes. The ledger takes it as it is.
Sharp Principle
A loss that beat the close was a good trade.
How the morning called it
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