Slate Recap · Sharp Journal · Evening Edition · 2 min read

Underdogs carrying the value. 11 of 12 edges on dogs.

Observation

The model reviewed 15 MLB games on March 30, 2026 and found 11 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 7 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

Slate Result
+1.6u
Net · 1-0-0
+0.0
CLV Held
6 / 1
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient Model edge
6 of 1 -5 of 1
Top Edge · Settled
Texas Rangers +1.5 4.5%+
Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles · TEX 5, BAL 2
Model: 0.2 · Close: -1.5 · CLV: +0.0
Win · +1.6u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
TEX @ BAL -15.0%
+1.6u
COL @ TOR -15.0%
Pending
LAA @ CHC -15.0%
Pending
CLE @ LAD -15.0%
Pending
WAS @ PHI -14.7%
Pending
NYY @ SEA -14.4%
Pending
MIN @ KC -6.7%
Pending
TB @ MIL -3.7%
Pending
CHW @ MIA -0.8%
Pending
PIT @ CIN -1.3%
Pending
OAK @ ATL -1.8%
Pending
NYM @ STL +4.7%
Pending
BOS @ HOU +11.9%
Pending
DET @ ARI +13.3%
Pending
SF @ SD +14.5%
Pending
Closing Line Audit

Market closed within model fair value on -5 of 1 settled games.

BOS @ HOU
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Model edge
CLE @ LAD
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Model edge
COL @ TOR
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Model edge
DET @ ARI
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Model edge
LAA @ CHC
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Model edge
NYM @ STL
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Model edge
Near Misses
San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The board paid. The process is why.
Sharp Principle

Wins that missed the close get audited too.

How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›
Recent performance ยท MLB

Recent sample below reporting threshold. Figures publish once 7 signals are graded.

This slate had 15 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 7. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is CLV?
Closing Line Value measures whether the price you got on a bet was better than the closing line. Positive CLV correlates with long-term profitability. The evening edition reports CLV against the closing line and against model fair value separately.
Why no red L badges on losses?
Outcomes are reported without color-coded punishment. A loss is a data point, not a failure. The framework holds when every signal is verified and every pass is documented, regardless of how any single result fell.
What is a pass day?
A pass day is a slate where the model issued zero signals. Pass days are not missed opportunities. They are the system refusing to manufacture signals where the data does not support them.
This Week's Reports
← Previous report Next report →
Mar 30 Mar 31 Apr 1 Apr 2 Apr 3 Apr 4 Apr 5
Related
Passes8 games the model passed on EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings GameTEX @ BAL GameCOL @ TOR WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary LearnBeginner's Guide to Sports Betting MorningHow the morning called it: MLB market report

Only the signal layer is hidden.

Full model output. Live alerts. Bet tracking. One pick beats five.

See Tomorrow's Setup