Games the Model Passed On | May 1, 2026
Most of the slate stayed inside efficient pricing ranges. As a result, 13 games were logged as passes rather than forced into action.
Analyzed
15
Passed
13
87%
Edge band
2 to 3.4%
of passed games
Passed Games
HOU @ BOS · -1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
PHI @ MIA · -1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
LAD @ STL · 1.5
Near threshold but not qualified.
Edge band: 2 to 3.4% · Pass
ATL @ COL · 1.5
No measurable edge.
Edge band: Below 2% · Pass
CHW @ SD · 1.5
Near threshold but not qualified.
Edge band: 2 to 3.4% · Pass
SF @ TB · 1.5
Near threshold but not qualified.
Edge band: 2 to 3.4% · Pass
ARI @ CHC · 1.5
Near threshold but not qualified.
Edge band: 2 to 3.4% · Pass
KC @ SEA · 1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 3.5 to 4.4% · Filtered
MIL @ WAS · 1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
CIN @ PIT · 1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
NYM @ LAA · 1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
CLE @ OAK · 1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
TOR @ MIN · 1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.
Early-season MLB pass rates tend to run higher (85-90%) because the model requires stable pitching, bullpen, and lineup data before generating high-confidence edges.
Related
ReportFull Market Report May 1›
ReadWhy We Pass More Than We Play›
EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings›
TeamToronto Blue Jays Insights›
TeamCleveland Guardians Insights›
WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary›
Most games never qualify.
Get notified when one actually does. Selectivity is the system.
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