Market Reports / May 1, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 1, 2026

15 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 68

Most slates look efficient on the surface. On May 1, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 15 MLB games and found only 2 signals worth sending, with 13 games falling short of the threshold.

MEI
68
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
TOR @ MIN
Density
13.0%
2 of 15
Passed
13
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
Texas Rangers -1.5
TEX @ DET
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.0
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Most games never become signals. That is usually a sign of market efficiency, not a missed opportunity.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
TEX @ DET -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BAL @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
HOU @ BOS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ MIA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAD @ STL 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
ATL @ COL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CHW @ SD 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
SF @ TB 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
ARI @ CHC 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
KC @ SEA 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
MIL @ WAS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ PIT 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYM @ LAA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CLE @ OAK 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TOR @ MIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers -1.1 pp away
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates -2.1 pp away
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals -0.9 pp away
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals -1.8 pp away
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies +1.0 pp toward model
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees -1.3 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
3 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes13 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameTOR @ MIN› GameCLE @ OAK› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBeginner's Guide to Sports Betting›

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