Market Reports / May 3, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 3, 2026

15 games analyzed 5 signals MEI: 74

The model reviewed 15 MLB games on May 3, 2026 and found 12 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 5 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
74
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
CLE @ OAK
Density
33.0%
5 of 15
Passed
10
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
Baltimore Orioles +1.5
BAL @ NYY
Market
1.5
Model
-0.3
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
TOR @ MIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BAL @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CIN @ PIT -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ MIA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ TB 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYM @ LAA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHW @ SD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
KC @ SEA 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
HOU @ BOS 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TEX @ DET -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ COL -1.5 Below 2% PASS
ARI @ CHC 1.5 Below 2% PASS
LAD @ STL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIL @ WAS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CLE @ OAK 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins -13.4 pp away
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates No movement
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals -1.7 pp away
San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays +13.1 pp toward model
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies +14.0 pp toward model
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics +6.1 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
2 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes10 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameCLE @ OAK› GameMIL @ WAS› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnCLV Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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