5 signals from tonight's 15 game slate.
May 3, 2026 · Updated 2026-05-03T15:01:03.173491Z
Observation
Most slates look efficient on the surface. On May 3, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 15 MLB games and found only 5 signals worth sending, with 10 games falling short of the threshold.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
11 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
11 of 15
4 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
Baltimore Orioles +1.5
4.5%+
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees · BAL 3, NYY 11
Model: -0.3
·
Close: -1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
TOR @ MIN
-6.0%
Final TOR 3-4 MIN
BAL @ NYY
-6.0%
-1.0u
CIN @ PIT
-6.0%
Final CIN 0-1 PIT
PHI @ MIA
-6.0%
Final PHI 7-2 MIA
SF @ TB
-6.0%
Final SF 1-2 TB
NYM @ LAA
-6.0%
Final NYM 5-1 LAA
CHW @ SD
-6.0%
Final CHW 3-4 SD
KC @ SEA
-6.0%
Final KC 4-1 SEA
HOU @ BOS
-6.0%
Final HOU 3-1 BOS
TEX @ DET
-6.0%
Final TEX 1-7 DET
ATL @ COL
-1.9%
Final ATL 11-6 COL
ARI @ CHC
-0.4%
Final ARI 4-8 CHC
LAD @ STL
+1.8%
Final LAD 4-1 STL
MIL @ WAS
+6.8%
Final MIL 2-3 WAS
CLE @ OAK
+10.3%
Final CLE 1-7 OAK
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 4 of 15 settled games.
CIN @ PIT
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
MIL @ WAS
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
NYM @ LAA
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
TOR @ MIN
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
ARI @ CHC
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -5.5
ATL @ COL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +2.5
Near Misses
Cleveland Guardians vs Oakland Athletics
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
Wrong side tonight. The record shows it because the record shows everything.
Sharp Principle
The close is the referee.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›