Market Reports / April 28, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 28, 2026

15 games analyzed 5 signals MEI: 75

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 75, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
75
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
KC @ OAK
Density
33.0%
5 of 15
Passed
10
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
San Francisco Giants +1.5
SF @ PHI
Market
1.5
Model
-0.9
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
SF @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BOS @ TOR -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
WAS @ NYM 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
DET @ ATL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SEA @ MIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYY @ TEX -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIA @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
COL @ CIN 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
ARI @ MIL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TB @ CLE 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
HOU @ BAL 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
STL @ PIT 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
LAA @ CHW 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHC @ SD 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
KC @ OAK 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians +1.0 pp toward model
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles -0.2 pp away
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies +3.2 pp toward model
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays +1.1 pp toward model
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets -0.6 pp away
Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves No movement
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
5 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 10 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes10 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameKC @ OAK› GameCHC @ SD› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBeginner's Guide to Sports Betting›

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