Market Reports / May 2, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 2, 2026

15 games analyzed 4 signals MEI: 68

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On May 2, 2026, that process resulted in 4 published signals and 11 passes.

MEI
68
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
TEX @ DET
Density
27.0%
4 of 15
Passed
11
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
ARI @ CHC
Market
1.5
Model
-0.7
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

SharpPicks treats discipline as part of the edge. When projected value stays below the qualification line, the game is logged as a pass rather than forced into action.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
TOR @ MIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ARI @ CHC 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ WAS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
HOU @ BOS 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BAL @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHW @ SD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYM @ LAA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ MIA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ TB -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ COL 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
CLE @ OAK 1.5 Below 2% PASS
KC @ SEA 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
LAD @ STL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ PIT 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TEX @ DET 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins -3.4 pp away
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs -0.1 pp away
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics +1.5 pp toward model
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates No movement
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals +2.8 pp toward model
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox -2.7 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
3 of 7

This slate had 15 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 4. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes11 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameTEX @ DET› GameCIN @ PIT› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnCLV Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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