Market Reports / May 4, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 4, 2026

12 games analyzed 4 signals MEI: 68

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 68, signaling a active environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
68
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
ATL @ SEA
Density
33.0%
4 of 12
Passed
8
of 12
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Baltimore Orioles +1.5
BAL @ NYY
Market
1.5
Model
0.2
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Most games never become signals. That is usually a sign of market efficiency, not a missed opportunity.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
PHI @ MIA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BAL @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CIN @ CHC 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CLE @ KC 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ STL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAD @ HOU 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TOR @ TB -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BOS @ DET 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
CHW @ LAA 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
NYM @ COL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ SEA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers +19.7 pp toward model
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins -2.4 pp away
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees -3.0 pp away
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs -1.4 pp away
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals +1.2 pp toward model
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals +2.4 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
1 of 7

This slate had 12 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 4. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
This Week's Reports
← Previous report Next report →
May 4 May 5 May 6 May 7 May 8 May 9 May 10
Related
Passes8 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameATL @ SEA› GamePHI @ MIA› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet›

Only the signal layer is hidden.

Full model output. Live alerts. Bet tracking. One pick beats five.

Claim Founding Spot