Market Reports / May 5, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 5, 2026

15 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 67

The model reviewed 15 MLB games on May 5, 2026 and found 9 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 2 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
67
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
CHW @ LAA
Density
13.0%
2 of 15
Passed
13
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
Colorado Rockies +1.5
NYM @ COL
Market
1.5
Model
0.2
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
MIN @ WAS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CLE @ KC -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIL @ STL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAD @ HOU 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYM @ COL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TEX @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
OAK @ PHI 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
BOS @ DET 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CIN @ CHC 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
ATL @ SEA 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
SD @ SF 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
TOR @ TB 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
BAL @ MIA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PIT @ ARI 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHW @ LAA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers +3.5 pp toward model
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays -4.6 pp away
Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals +1.5 pp toward model
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs -1.2 pp away
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals +1.5 pp toward model
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals +1.7 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
1 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes13 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameCHW @ LAA› GamePIT @ ARI› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnCLV Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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