Dogs leading the edge board: 11 underdog vs 3 favorite.
May 5, 2026 · Updated 2026-05-05T15:01:06.108746Z
Observation
Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On May 5, 2026, that process resulted in 2 published signals and 13 passes.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
13 / 13
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
13 of 13
0 of 13
Top Edge · Settled
Colorado Rockies +1.5
4.5%+
New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies
Model: 0.2
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
MIN @ WAS
-6.0%
Final MIN 11-3 WAS
CLE @ KC
-6.0%
Final CLE 3-5 KC
MIL @ STL
-6.0%
Pending
LAD @ HOU
+6.0%
Final LAD 1-2 HOU
NYM @ COL
+6.0%
-1.0u
TEX @ NYY
-6.0%
Final TEX 4-7 NYY
OAK @ PHI
-4.2%
Final OAK 1-9 PHI
BOS @ DET
-1.1%
Final BOS 10-3 DET
CIN @ CHC
-2.5%
Final CIN 2-3 CHC
ATL @ SEA
-2.6%
Final ATL 3-2 SEA
SD @ SF
-2.8%
Final SD 8-5 SF
TOR @ TB
-4.3%
Final TOR 3-4 TB
BAL @ MIA
-5.3%
Final BAL 9-7 MIA
PIT @ ARI
-6.6%
Final PIT 0-7 ARI
CHW @ LAA
+13.4%
Final CHW 3-4 LAA
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 0 of 13 settled games.
CHW @ LAA
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
LAD @ HOU
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
ATL @ SEA
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
BAL @ MIA
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
BOS @ DET
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CIN @ CHC
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
Signal missed. Tracked, not removed.
Sharp Principle
Receipts over narratives.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›