Slate Recap · Sharp Journal · Evening Edition · 2 min read

Dogs leading the edge board: 11 underdog vs 3 favorite.

Observation

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On May 5, 2026, that process resulted in 2 published signals and 13 passes.

Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
13 / 13
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient Model edge
13 of 13 0 of 13
Top Edge · Settled
Colorado Rockies +1.5 4.5%+
New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies
Model: 0.2 · Close: 1.5 · CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
MIN @ WAS -6.0%
Final MIN 11-3 WAS
CLE @ KC -6.0%
Final CLE 3-5 KC
MIL @ STL -6.0%
Pending
LAD @ HOU +6.0%
Final LAD 1-2 HOU
NYM @ COL +6.0%
-1.0u
TEX @ NYY -6.0%
Final TEX 4-7 NYY
OAK @ PHI -4.2%
Final OAK 1-9 PHI
BOS @ DET -1.1%
Final BOS 10-3 DET
CIN @ CHC -2.5%
Final CIN 2-3 CHC
ATL @ SEA -2.6%
Final ATL 3-2 SEA
SD @ SF -2.8%
Final SD 8-5 SF
TOR @ TB -4.3%
Final TOR 3-4 TB
BAL @ MIA -5.3%
Final BAL 9-7 MIA
PIT @ ARI -6.6%
Final PIT 0-7 ARI
CHW @ LAA +13.4%
Final CHW 3-4 LAA
Closing Line Audit

Market closed within model fair value on 0 of 13 settled games.

CHW @ LAA
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Model edge
LAD @ HOU
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Model edge
ATL @ SEA
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Market efficient
BAL @ MIA
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Market efficient
BOS @ DET
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Market efficient
CIN @ CHC
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Market efficient
Near Misses
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
Signal missed. Tracked, not removed.
Sharp Principle

Receipts over narratives.

How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
1 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 13 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is CLV?
Closing Line Value measures whether the price you got on a bet was better than the closing line. Positive CLV correlates with long-term profitability. The evening edition reports CLV against the closing line and against model fair value separately.
Why no red L badges on losses?
Outcomes are reported without color-coded punishment. A loss is a data point, not a failure. The framework holds when every signal is verified and every pass is documented, regardless of how any single result fell.
What is a pass day?
A pass day is a slate where the model issued zero signals. Pass days are not missed opportunities. They are the system refusing to manufacture signals where the data does not support them.
This Week's Reports
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May 4 May 5 May 6 May 7 May 8 May 9 May 10
Related
Passes13 games the model passed on EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings GameCHW @ LAA GamePIT @ ARI WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet MorningHow the morning called it: MLB market report

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