Market Reports / May 9, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 9, 2026

15 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 66

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 66, signaling a active environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
66
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
NYY @ MIL
Density
7.0%
1 of 15
Passed
14
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
Athletics +1.5
OAK @ BAL
Market
1.5
Model
0.7
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
OAK @ BAL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIN @ CLE -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHC @ TEX -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYM @ ARI -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PIT @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAA @ TOR 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ LAD 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
COL @ PHI 1.5 Below 2% PASS
HOU @ CIN 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
WAS @ MIA 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
DET @ KC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TB @ BOS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
STL @ SD 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SEA @ CHW 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYY @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles +18.8 pp toward model
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox +0.6 pp toward model
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds +4.4 pp toward model
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies +0.3 pp toward model
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians -0.4 pp away
Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers +0.2 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
2-5
CLV beat
0 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 14 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes14 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameNYY @ MIL› GameSEA @ CHW› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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