Single conviction: Milwaukee Brewers at +9 percent while the rest stays flat.
May 9, 2026 · Updated 2026-05-09T15:00:17.631435Z
Observation
This slate produced a market efficiency score of 66, signaling a active environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.
Slate Result
+1.6u
Net · 1-0-0
+3.0
CLV Held
12 / 14
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
12 of 14
2 of 14
Top Edge · Settled
Athletics +1.5
4.5%+
Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles · OAK 6, BAL 2
Model: 0.7
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +3.0
Win · +1.6u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
OAK @ BAL
-6.0%
+1.6u
MIN @ CLE
-6.0%
Final MIN 2-1 CLE
CHC @ TEX
-6.0%
Final CHC 0-6 TEX
NYM @ ARI
-6.0%
Final NYM 1-2 ARI
PIT @ SF
-6.0%
Final PIT 13-1 SF
LAA @ TOR
-5.3%
Final LAA 1-14 TOR
ATL @ LAD
-4.3%
Final ATL 7-2 LAD
COL @ PHI
-1.7%
Final COL 3-9 PHI
HOU @ CIN
-3.2%
Final HOU 1-3 CIN
WAS @ MIA
-3.7%
Final WAS 7-8 MIA
DET @ KC
-4.5%
Final DET 1-5 KC
TB @ BOS
-5.8%
Pending
STL @ SD
-6.2%
Final STL 2-4 SD
SEA @ CHW
+8.3%
Final SEA 1-6 CHW
NYY @ MIL
+9.1%
Final NYY 3-4 MIL
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 2 of 14 settled games.
NYY @ MIL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
OAK @ BAL
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +1.5
SEA @ CHW
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
ATL @ LAD
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CHC @ TEX
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
COL @ PHI
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
A green night. The grade that counts is still the closing line.
Sharp Principle
A loss that beat the close was a good trade.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›