Games the Model Passed On | July 4, 2026
SharpPicks passed on 9 of 14 MLB games on July 4, 2026. None of these matchups produced enough projected value to justify an official signal.
Analyzed
14
Passed
9
64%
Edge band
2 to 3.4%
of passed games
Passed Games
TB @ HOU · -1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
BOS @ LAA · -1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
PHI @ KC · -1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
TOR @ SEA · 1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 3.5 to 4.4% · Filtered
MIL @ ARI · -1.5
Near threshold but not qualified.
Edge band: 2 to 3.4% · Pass
STL @ CHC · 1.5
Below internal threshold.
Edge band: Below 2% · Pass
MIN @ NYY · 1.5
Near threshold but not qualified.
Edge band: 2 to 3.4% · Pass
CHW @ CLE · 1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
MIA @ OAK · 1.5 FILTERED
Filtered by confidence or validation checks.
Edge band: 4.5%+ · Filtered
A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.
Related
ReportFull Market Report Jul 4›
ReadWhy We Pass More Than We Play›
EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings›
TeamTampa Bay Rays Insights›
TeamMiami Marlins Insights›
WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary›
Most games never qualify.
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