Market Reports / July 4, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 4, 2026

14 games analyzed 5 signals MEI: 79

The model reviewed 14 MLB games on July 4, 2026 and found 10 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 5 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
79
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
DET @ TEX
Density
36.0%
5 of 14
Passed
9
of 14
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Detroit Tigers -1.5
DET @ TEX
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.1
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

SharpPicks treats discipline as part of the edge. When projected value stays below the qualification line, the game is logged as a pass rather than forced into action.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
DET @ TEX -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BAL @ CIN 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TB @ HOU -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SF @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYM @ ATL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BOS @ LAA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ KC -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TOR @ SEA 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
MIL @ ARI -1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
STL @ CHC 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIN @ NYY 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
CHW @ CLE 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIA @ OAK 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds -0.8 pp away
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians -0.2 pp away
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros -0.9 pp away
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves -0.4 pp away
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs -0.3 pp away
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals +0.9 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
3 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 9 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes9 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameDET @ TEX› GameBAL @ CIN› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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