Market Reports / July 2, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 2, 2026

9 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 80

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On July 2, 2026, that process resulted in 3 published signals and 6 passes.

MEI
80
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
CHW @ CLE
Density
33.0%
3 of 9
Passed
6
of 9
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
STL @ ATL
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.2
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
STL @ ATL -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TB @ KC -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
DET @ TEX -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIA @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAA @ SEA 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SD @ LAD 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
PIT @ PHI 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CHW @ CLE 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies -0.8 pp away
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians +2.9 pp toward model
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers +4.8 pp toward model
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners -0.3 pp away
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies -17.0 pp away
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves -0.2 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
3 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 6 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
This Week's Reports
← Previous report Next report →
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 1 Jul 2 Jul 3 Jul 4 Jul 5
Related
Passes6 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameCHW @ CLE› GameSTL @ ATL› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnCLV Calculator›

Only the signal layer is hidden.

Full model output. Live alerts. Bet tracking. One pick beats five.

Claim Founding Spot