Market Reports / July 1, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 1, 2026

11 games analyzed 4 signals MEI: 79

Most slates look efficient on the surface. On July 1, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 11 MLB games and found only 4 signals worth sending, with 7 games falling short of the threshold.

MEI
79
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
SD @ CHC
Density
36.0%
4 of 11
Passed
7
of 11
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
San Francisco Giants +1.5
SF @ ARI
Market
1.5
Model
0.7
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
SD @ CHC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ ARI 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYM @ TOR -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TB @ KC -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
DET @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIA @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAD @ OAK 1.5 Below 2% PASS
PIT @ PHI 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
MIN @ HOU 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
STL @ ATL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles No movement
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians No movement
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees No movement
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies No movement
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves No movement
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals +1.1 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
3 of 7

This slate had 11 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 4. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes7 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameSD @ CHC› GameSF @ ARI› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet›

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