Market Reports / July 5, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 5, 2026

15 games analyzed 5 signals MEI: 82

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 14 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
82
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
NYM @ ATL
Density
33.0%
5 of 15
Passed
10
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
New York Mets -1.5
NYM @ ATL
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.2
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
NYM @ ATL -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BAL @ CIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
DET @ TEX -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TB @ HOU -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIA @ OAK 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TOR @ SEA 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SD @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BOS @ LAA -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SF @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PIT @ WAS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ KC -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
STL @ CHC 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
MIN @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHW @ CLE 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIL @ ARI 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals -1.4 pp away
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds +1.4 pp toward model
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees -0.2 pp away
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks +18.7 pp toward model
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies -18.1 pp away
Miami Marlins @ Athletics -11.4 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
5-2
CLV beat
3 of 7

This slate had 15 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 5. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes10 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameNYM @ ATL› GameBAL @ CIN› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnCLV Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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