Balanced board with 5 signals and no clear bias.
July 5, 2026 · Updated 2026-07-05T16:14:50.825003Z
Observation
This slate produced a market efficiency score of 82, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
11 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
11 of 15
4 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
New York Mets -1.5
4.5%+
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · NYM 10, ATL 9
Model: -2.2
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
NYM @ ATL
-12.0%
-1.0u
BAL @ CIN
-12.0%
Final BAL 2-3 CIN
DET @ TEX
-12.0%
Final DET 6-3 TEX
TB @ HOU
-12.0%
Final TB 0-2 HOU
MIA @ OAK
+12.0%
Final MIA 9-8 OAK
TOR @ SEA
-12.0%
Final TOR 0-4 SEA
SD @ LAD
-9.8%
Final SD 5-2 LAD
BOS @ LAA
-9.1%
Final BOS 7-3 LAA
SF @ COL
-7.7%
Final SF 6-7 COL
PIT @ WAS
-5.4%
Final PIT 11-5 WAS
PHI @ KC
-4.6%
Final PHI 2-5 KC
STL @ CHC
-4.4%
Final STL 4-6 CHC
MIN @ NYY
-4.7%
Final MIN 6-1 NYY
CHW @ CLE
-4.8%
Final CHW 7-6 CLE
MIL @ ARI
+7.0%
Final MIL 3-2 ARI
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 4 of 15 settled games.
MIA @ OAK
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
PHI @ KC
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
SF @ COL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
TB @ HOU
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
BAL @ CIN
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
BOS @ LAA
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
Near Misses
Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The entry did not hold and the close did not help. Logged either way.
Sharp Principle
The close is the referee.
How the morning called it
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