Market Reports / July 6, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 6, 2026

8 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 78

The model reviewed 8 MLB games on July 6, 2026 and found 5 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 3 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
78
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
TOR @ SF
Density
38.0%
3 of 8
Passed
5
of 8
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
TOR @ SF
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.3
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Most games never become signals. That is usually a sign of market efficiency, not a missed opportunity.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
TOR @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
ARI @ SD -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
COL @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
HOU @ WAS -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PHI @ KC -1.5 Below 2% PASS
NYM @ ATL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIL @ STL 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
NYY @ TB 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays -4.1 pp away
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals +4.4 pp toward model
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves -0.2 pp away
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals +1.4 pp toward model
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants -0.5 pp away
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres -2.6 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
3 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes5 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameTOR @ SF› GameARI @ SD› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBetween the Lines: Betting from Your Phone›

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