Market Reports / July 12, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 12, 2026

3 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 60

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 60, signaling a active environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
60
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
ARI @ LAD
Density
33.0%
1 of 3
Passed
2
of 3
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
ARI @ LAD
Market
1.5
Model
-0.2
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
ARI @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TOR @ SD -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
COL @ SF 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
Line Movement
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles No movement
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds No movement
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals No movement
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants +10.2 pp toward model
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers -13.3 pp away
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals No movement
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
6 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 2 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes2 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameARI @ LAD› GameTOR @ SD› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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