Single conviction: Arizona Diamondbacks at +12 percent while the rest stays flat.
July 12, 2026 · Updated 2026-07-12T19:09:32.176928Z
Observation
This slate produced a market efficiency score of 60, signaling a active environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.
Slate Result
+0.9u
Net · 1-0-0
+0.0
CLV Held
1 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
1 of 15
14 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
4.5%+
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers · ARI 5, LAD 3
Model: -0.2
·
Close: -1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Win · +0.9u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
ARI @ LAD
-12.0%
+0.9u
TOR @ SD
-11.3%
Final TOR 4-5 SD
COL @ SF
-2.8%
Final COL 1-3 SF
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 14 of 15 settled games.
ARI @ LAD
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
COL @ SF
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +1.5
TOR @ SD
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -2.5
Near Misses
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants
2 to 3.4%
Edge below threshold.
Implication
A green night. The grade that counts is still the closing line.
Sharp Principle
Process first. Results follow or they do not.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›