Market Reports / July 8, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 8, 2026

15 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 81

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On July 8, 2026, that process resulted in 3 published signals and 12 passes.

MEI
81
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
BOS @ CHW
Density
20.0%
3 of 15
Passed
12
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
ATL @ PIT
Market
1.5
Model
0.5
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Most games never become signals. That is usually a sign of market efficiency, not a missed opportunity.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
ATL @ PIT 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYY @ TB -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
COL @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TOR @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIL @ STL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
KC @ NYM 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SEA @ MIA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
OAK @ DET 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CHC @ BAL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
ARI @ SD 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
HOU @ WAS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ CIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAA @ TEX 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CLE @ MIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BOS @ CHW 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles -2.0 pp away
Athletics @ Detroit Tigers +2.4 pp toward model
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates No movement
Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins -1.7 pp away
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays +0.4 pp toward model
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals +1.1 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
3 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes12 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameBOS @ CHW› GameATL @ PIT› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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