Value sitting with the underdogs tonight. 3 signals, mostly dogs.
July 8, 2026 · Updated 2026-07-08T16:14:57.509908Z
Observation
Most slates look efficient on the surface. On July 8, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 15 MLB games and found only 3 signals worth sending, with 12 games falling short of the threshold.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
14 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
14 of 15
1 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
4.5%+
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates · ATL 3, PIT 0
Model: 0.5
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
ATL @ PIT
+12.0%
-1.0u
NYY @ TB
-12.0%
Final NYY 0-3 TB
COL @ LAD
-12.0%
Final COL 3-3 LAD
TOR @ SF
-11.4%
Final TOR 10-0 SF
MIL @ STL
-8.4%
Final MIL 1-5 STL
KC @ NYM
-7.9%
Final KC 2-6 NYM
SEA @ MIA
-7.7%
Final SEA 0-2 MIA
OAK @ DET
-0.1%
Final OAK 1-6 DET
CHC @ BAL
-0.4%
Final CHC 9-7 BAL
ARI @ SD
-2.0%
Final ARI 1-4 SD
HOU @ WAS
-5.4%
Final HOU 2-8 WAS
PHI @ CIN
-7.0%
Final PHI 5-11 CIN
LAA @ TEX
-7.7%
Final LAA 13-1 TEX
CLE @ MIN
-9.1%
Final CLE 5-6 MIN
BOS @ CHW
+14.7%
Final BOS 5-0 CHW
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 1 of 15 settled games.
BOS @ CHW
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
ARI @ SD
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
ATL @ PIT
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
CHC @ BAL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CLE @ MIN
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
COL @ LAD
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
A miss on both axes. The ledger takes it as it is.
Sharp Principle
The record stays public either way.
How the morning called it
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