Market Reports / July 11, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 11, 2026

15 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 84

The model reviewed 15 MLB games on July 11, 2026 and found 11 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 3 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
84
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
SEA @ TB
Density
20.0%
3 of 15
Passed
12
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Houston Astros +1.5
HOU @ TEX
Market
1.5
Model
-0.9
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
OAK @ CHW -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
HOU @ TEX 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TOR @ SD -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
ARI @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHC @ CIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIL @ PIT -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ DET -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYY @ WAS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CLE @ MIA 1.5 Below 2% PASS
LAA @ MIN 1.5 Below 2% PASS
BOS @ NYM 1.5 Below 2% PASS
COL @ SF 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
KC @ BAL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ STL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SEA @ TB 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Athletics @ Chicago White Sox -2.8 pp away
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants +13.9 pp toward model
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins -1.0 pp away
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays No movement
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers +0.6 pp toward model
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles -0.2 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
2-5
CLV beat
5 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes12 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameSEA @ TB› GameATL @ STL› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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