3 signals from tonight's 15 game slate.
July 11, 2026 · Updated 2026-07-11T16:14:40.335056Z
Observation
This slate produced a market efficiency score of 84, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.
Slate Result
+1.7u
Net · 1-0-0
+3.0
CLV Held
13 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
13 of 15
2 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
Houston Astros +1.5
4.5%+
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers · HOU 9, TEX 3
Model: -0.9
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +3.0
Win · +1.7u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
OAK @ CHW
-12.0%
Final OAK 0-1 CHW
HOU @ TEX
-12.0%
+1.7u
TOR @ SD
-12.0%
Final TOR 7-8 SD
ARI @ LAD
-12.0%
Final ARI 9-2 LAD
CHC @ CIN
-10.8%
Final CHC 5-3 CIN
MIL @ PIT
-9.1%
Final MIL 2-3 PIT
PHI @ DET
-7.4%
Final PHI 4-2 DET
NYY @ WAS
+5.2%
Final NYY 4-2 WAS
CLE @ MIA
-0.5%
Final CLE 4-1 MIA
LAA @ MIN
-0.9%
Final LAA 3-5 MIN
BOS @ NYM
-1.7%
Final BOS 4-0 NYM
COL @ SF
-2.3%
Final COL 2-4 SF
KC @ BAL
-5.5%
Final KC 1-6 BAL
ATL @ STL
+14.1%
Final ATL 1-4 STL
SEA @ TB
+16.5%
Final SEA 1-6 TB
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 2 of 15 settled games.
ATL @ STL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
HOU @ TEX
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
ARI @ LAD
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
BOS @ NYM
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CHC @ CIN
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
CLE @ MIA
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
A green night. The grade that counts is still the closing line.
Sharp Principle
The close is the referee.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›