Market Reports / July 9, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 9, 2026

13 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 75

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 75, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
75
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
BOS @ CHW
Density
15.0%
2 of 13
Passed
11
of 13
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Boston Red Sox -1.5
BOS @ CHW
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.0
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
BOS @ CHW -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SEA @ MIA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIL @ STL -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
ARI @ SD -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHC @ BAL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYY @ TB 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
PHI @ CIN -1.5 Below 2% PASS
OAK @ DET 1.5 Below 2% PASS
KC @ NYM 1.5 Below 2% PASS
COL @ SF 1.5 Below 2% PASS
LAA @ TEX 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
CLE @ MIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ PIT 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates +0.2 pp toward model
Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets +2.2 pp toward model
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins +1.8 pp toward model
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox -0.4 pp away
Athletics @ Detroit Tigers +1.5 pp toward model
Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins -2.2 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
4 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes11 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameBOS @ CHW› GameSEA @ MIA› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBeginner's Guide to Sports Betting› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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