Balanced board with 2 signals and no clear bias.
July 9, 2026 · Updated 2026-07-09T16:14:43.611431Z
Observation
The model reviewed 13 MLB games on July 9, 2026 and found 7 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 2 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
11 / 13
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
11 of 13
2 of 13
Top Edge · Settled
Boston Red Sox -1.5
4.5%+
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox · BOS 2, CHW 1
Model: -2.0
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
BOS @ CHW
-12.0%
-1.0u
SEA @ MIA
-11.4%
Final SEA 4-8 MIA
MIL @ STL
-11.1%
Final MIL 8-4 STL
ARI @ SD
-8.3%
Final ARI 3-1 SD
CHC @ BAL
-5.2%
Final CHC 2-3 BAL
NYY @ TB
-2.1%
Final NYY 12-4 TB
PHI @ CIN
-0.9%
Final PHI 1-0 CIN
OAK @ DET
-0.2%
Final OAK 1-4 DET
KC @ NYM
-0.5%
Final KC 3-7 NYM
COL @ SF
-1.3%
Final COL 2-4 SF
LAA @ TEX
-3.4%
Final LAA 6-7 TEX
CLE @ MIN
+7.5%
Final CLE 5-2 MIN
ATL @ PIT
+8.4%
Final ATL 10-5 PIT
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 2 of 13 settled games.
ATL @ PIT
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
CLE @ MIN
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
ARI @ SD
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +1.5
BOS @ CHW
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
CHC @ BAL
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
COL @ SF
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The entry did not hold and the close did not help. Logged either way.
Sharp Principle
Graded on the close, not the final score.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›