Balanced board with 5 signals and no clear bias.
July 4, 2026 · Updated 2026-07-04T16:14:48.704115Z
Observation
Most slates look efficient on the surface. On July 4, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 14 MLB games and found only 5 signals worth sending, with 9 games falling short of the threshold.
Slate Result
+1.5u
Net · 1-0-0
+0.0
CLV Held
12 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
12 of 15
3 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
Detroit Tigers -1.5
4.5%+
Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers · DET 3, TEX 0
Model: -2.1
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Win · +1.5u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
DET @ TEX
-12.0%
+1.5u
BAL @ CIN
-12.0%
Final BAL 8-5 CIN
TB @ HOU
-12.0%
Final TB 8-10 HOU
SD @ LAD
-12.0%
Final SD 0-2 LAD
SF @ COL
-10.1%
Final SF 6-4 COL
NYM @ ATL
-8.9%
Final NYM 3-14 ATL
BOS @ LAA
-5.9%
Final BOS 7-1 LAA
PHI @ KC
-4.9%
Final PHI 6-1 KC
TOR @ SEA
-4.4%
Final TOR 0-11 SEA
MIL @ ARI
-2.2%
Final MIL 2-3 ARI
STL @ CHC
-1.3%
Final STL 3-0 CHC
MIN @ NYY
-3.0%
Final MIN 11-4 NYY
CHW @ CLE
-4.6%
Final CHW 3-1 CLE
MIA @ OAK
+8.8%
Final MIA 6-1 OAK
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 3 of 15 settled games.
DET @ TEX
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +3.5
MIA @ OAK
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
BAL @ CIN
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
BOS @ LAA
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
CHW @ CLE
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
MIL @ ARI
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
Near Misses
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
A green night. The grade that counts is still the closing line.
Sharp Principle
The record stays public either way.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›