Value sitting with the underdogs tonight. 4 signals, mostly dogs.
June 13, 2026 · Updated 2026-06-13T16:14:52.853618Z
Observation
Most slates look efficient on the surface. On June 13, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 15 MLB games and found only 4 signals worth sending, with 11 games falling short of the threshold.
Slate Result
+1.6u
Net · 1-0-0
+3.0
CLV Held
8 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
8 of 15
7 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
San Diego Padres +1.5
4.5%+
San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles · SD 9, BAL 3
Model: 0.4
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +3.0
Win · +1.6u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
NYY @ TOR
-12.0%
Final NYY 3-1 TOR
SD @ BAL
-12.0%
+1.6u
SEA @ WAS
-12.0%
Final SEA 3-8 WAS
ATL @ NYM
-12.0%
Final ATL 3-1 NYM
TB @ LAA
-12.0%
Final TB 0-4 LAA
MIA @ PIT
-6.8%
Final MIA 2-3 PIT
LAD @ CHW
+0.6%
Final LAD 7-1 CHW
COL @ OAK
-0.7%
Final COL 5-6 OAK
ARI @ CIN
+1.2%
Final ARI 1-2 CIN
DET @ CLE
+2.2%
Final DET 1-3 CLE
HOU @ KC
-5.6%
Final HOU 8-7 KC
PHI @ MIL
-9.1%
Final PHI 9-8 MIL
STL @ MIN
+9.8%
Final STL 9-6 MIN
CHC @ SF
+11.0%
Final CHC 6-1 SF
TEX @ BOS
+15.3%
Final TEX 3-6 BOS
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 7 of 15 settled games.
CHC @ SF
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
MIA @ PIT
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
NYY @ TOR
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
SD @ BAL
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +1.5
SEA @ WAS
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -2.5
ARI @ CIN
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
Near Misses
Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The board paid. The process is why.
Sharp Principle
Variance is rent. CLV is equity.
How the morning called it
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