Signal density at 50 percent. The market is mispricing tonight.
July 22, 2026 · Updated 2026-07-22T14:01:04.772664Z
Observation
Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 4 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
6 / 6
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
6 of 6
0 of 6
Top Edge · Settled
Los Angeles Sparks -2.5
4.5%+
Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks · PHO 86, LAS 82
Model: -9.1
·
Close: -2.5
·
CLV: --
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
PHO @ LAS
+8.0%
-1.0u
LVA @ WAS
+8.0%
Final LVA 99-100 WAS
CHI @ NYL
+7.1%
Final CHI 94-95 NYL
MIN @ SEA
+5.9%
Final MIN 86-76 SEA
DAL @ Portland Fire
+1.1%
Final DAL 101-97 Portland Fire
CON @ IND
-0.5%
Final CON 88-123 IND
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 0 of 6 settled games.
CHI @ NYL
Open: -11.5
·
Close: -7.5
CON @ IND
Open: -11.5
·
Close: -10.5
DAL @ Portland Fire
Open: +5.5
·
Close: +5.5
LVA @ WAS
Open: +5.5
·
Close: +6.5
MIN @ SEA
Open: +9.5
·
Close: +4.5
PHO @ LAS
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +3.5
Near Misses
Minnesota Lynx vs Seattle Storm
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
Signal missed. Tracked, not removed.
Sharp Principle
Process first. Results follow or they do not.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›