St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Model Analysis
This matchup showed a meaningful disagreement between price and projection. Whether that disagreement became an official signal depended on edge strength, confidence filters, and validation checks.
Market vs Model
Current SpreadCincinnati Reds +1.5
Model Line+0.5
Edge Band4.5%+
StatusSignal
MarketEdge: 4.5%+
0%4.5% threshold
Key Factors
Bullpen concern: St. Louis Cardinals's bullpen is running heavy. Model factors in the workload.
Model edge: +12.0% above the qualification threshold. Ensemble consensus across all four models.
Spread standard deviation across books is 1.5. Sportsbooks don't agree on this number.
Result
Pending
Game has not been graded
Result and CLV will be graded after the final score is posted.
Related
ReportMarket Report May 22›
TeamSt. Louis Cardinals Insights›
TeamCincinnati Reds Insights›
LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet›
ToolCLV Calculator›
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